I am a Deanie until the last dog dies. He don't look good. So I'm waiting to see how Wisconsin goes. Washington State results are better than I thought they would be.
But, theoretically, I am pencilling in John Kerry as Democratic Nominee. As a Massachusetts liberal, I have seen positive and negative.
Areas of Hope
1. Kennedy. I love the old lug and Kerry hooked himself up to the old warhorse. Kennedy, James Taylor, Carol King and others propelled him to an Iowa victory. But it is Kennedy as kingmaker. I wouldn't be surprised if the official Democratic establishment lined up on Ted's word, then bought on with Iowa. (How would the race be different if Edwards got knocked out and Gephardt was still in it?)
One of the most ironic moments of the campaign came when Kennedy stopped stumping in Iowa and ripped up Bush for the Iraq war, then went back to Me-Too.
- Back alley tactics. Kerry hasn't been ashamed to drop the gloves in any campaign fight so far. Push polling, nasty phone calls, macho smears and voter intimidation have been great in Massachusetts. This is a plus. I wish I could write this about Dean.
- The Party: Clearly the party has lined up behind Kerry. Fear of Dean united many of the bosses. Money has flowed in and they all wait, hopefully, for the kill in Wisconsin. Gore got the whispers and the backstabs. Four years of Bush and the Deaniacs threatened their fiefdoms. For the moment, they unite.
- Basic Liberal Policies: He's our empty suit.
- Opponent: While the election is about his opponent, Kerry is great. While the election is about him, he staggers. Since this is a mid-term election, it must be about the incumbent.
- Money. No caps.
- He's a great sprinter.
Areas of Concern:
- The process is concluding too fast. After a while, Massachusetts voters get very bored with JFK. Massachusetts sent a ton of letters to Iowa and NH for Dean. There are lots of us. Howie Carr was right about one thing. A whole bunch of Mass pols are trying to figure this one out. Noone has gone seriously negative (like Weld did) and taken the starch out of Kerry. His first negative attack commercial will come from Bush. (Where's his Osama ad?)
- Not exactly inspiring. Some improvement here, but I have watched him for years. Really.
- Aloof as hell. I vote for him and I know a lot of bad out of touch stories.
- Massachusett's liberal with Gore's personal touch and the Duke's gift of finding issues that resonate with the voters.
- Arrogance. Dean showed, this week, that he can raise money and fight for the base with the best of them. Yet, I think Howard (if he isn't the nominee) will spend a lot of time at home next year. We Know Best seems to be the mantra of Kerry campaign. Kerry should look to see how Bush used McCain. Dean could be his outrider.
- Bush: Expect to see a lot of brush clearing, shooting, and aw-shucks from the President. The accent will get deeper as he contrasts himself with Boston/Nantucket/Sun Valley/Park Avenue.
- Can he give us reasons to vote for him and not against the other guy?
- He's a lousy marathoner. Nine months of John Kerry against the Repugs at the trough should scare us. Electability is what Bush says it is. If he becomes liberal lecturer, we're toast. if he can channel some of the Dean centrism, we can do okay.
For all you loyal and happy Kerry fans out there, imagine what he is going to be like under the onslaught Dean got in Iowa? If Kerry has grown on the trail, as many appear to believe he has, JFK should be able to deal. Weld beat him up pretty good, though.
Also, he is getting a lot of love from the national media (as Dean got in the fall). What happens when the Note and the Gang of 500 turns? Can he take what Gore took?
Personally, I am as flabbergasted with this as I was in 2000 with Bush and McCain.
Frankly, the next two weeks will show a lot about Kerry. If he can win graciously and find a way to welcome the Deaniacs that want to win, maybe he will survive the 200 million dollar onslaught.
So far, his campaign has seemed to be "I have the power" can he bring in "you have the power?"